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Advances in Strategy Development for the 21st Century

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The future is clear


Whilst not all of it of course, a great deal is in fact very clear.

When all the threats so well articulated by Porter’s Five Forces Model are happening, in all probability they are part of a pattern – and one which is largely predictable. When your learning organization feels like it is learning but not producing, look for the patterns where value is created, and then lost. In both cases, the changes and complexity will contain self organizing patterns that offer strategic direction.


The near certainties ahead


In addition to the list of ‘near certainties’ below, every industry will have its own short list of ‘near certainties’ as far as their strategic planning horizon is concerned.Image
We know that the economic power of the USA (and all of the West) will steadily diminish relative to China and India over the next 10-15 years. Any worthwhile strategy will be factoring that into its political, financial and operational decisions as it affects the industry and the business. Where will your future innovation, customers, employees and suppliers develop? From where will new competition emerge?

We know that the birth rate in the western world is below the rate required to maintain populations so it is reasonable to assume growth in immigration to the West and that the West will accelerate its exports and offshore investment.(If these things don’t happen western economies will shrink and there will be fewer businesses needing a strategy).

If your business relies on local markets or has not yet accommodated migrants into its culture – ask yourself how long you can hold out. If you are not watching and as appropriate, investing offshore, are you by definition, competitively disadvantaged. Developing economies also have falling birth rates along side greater education and health system access and life expectancies.Image We know that the allocation of disposable income will change. Household expenditure on telecommunications was miniscule in 1950. Today it is a priority item in many markets – including India and China. In the 10-15 years ahead, emerging economies will demand more and more education, healthcare, business services and probably leisure as their immediate needs for food and shelter are increasingly satisfied. Meanwhile the west, whilst still consuming these, is likely to shift an increasing proportion of its disposable income to financial services (particularly baby boomers). Healthcare spending is likely to rise faster than information spending. Identifying and acting on early trend shifts as they relate to the revenue sources upon which your business relies continues and is substantially predictable.






 

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